On the first day of 2023 no one thought it would be a blockbuster year for stocks but by December 29th it became obvious they could not have been more wrong. The last year will be remembered as one of resiliency and defied expectations. After the slight reality check in the third quarter, the last three months of the year saw strong returns across all major classes. The S&P 500 Index finished the year on a nine-week winning streak, its longest in nearly 20 years, up 26% and just a few points shy of its all-time high registered on January 3, 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 16%, topping 37,000 for the first time and setting seven record closes in the final days of 2023. Excitement surrounding artificial intelligence led the Nasdaq Composite Index increase of almost 45%. The new “Magnificent Seven” replaced FANG as the favorite nickname for market leaders. Those seven stocks (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla) grew to represent collectively almost 30% of the entire S&P 500’s market value and contributed about one-third to the S&P 500’s gains for the year. Meanwhile, the Equally Weighted S&P 500 Index, which allocates weights evenly to each constituent, saw a more modest total return of 14%, proving the last year to be an exception.
The high-growth and cyclical technology, telecommunications and consumer discretionary sectors have been the top-performing sectors of our domestic economy this year. The more defensive sectors, including utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples, have been the laggards in 2023.
The international equity markets also reversed their third quarter narrative with the MSCE EAFE Index finishing the year with a 19% advance.
The fixed income markets were just as positive across the board. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index was on track to post its third-consecutive negative year, which would have been the first time that has ever happened. But in anticipation of the end of the central bank’s tightening policy, the index posted a positive return of 6.8% for the fourth quarter to end the year 5.5% higher.
This market stability was especially impressive considering the barrage of negative news, both domestic and international. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered its second year. An attack on Israel by Hamas launched a war in the Middle East. A regional banking crisis rattled the markets in the spring of 2023, evoking memories of the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. The autoworkers’ strike, the longest in 25 years, forced automakers to shutter several non-union plants as supplies from union-represented shops stopped coming through, which cost them billions of dollars. Yet none of it seemed to affect stocks. And in one of the biggest surprises of all, higher bond yields sparked a stretch of stock market volatility but did not hinder the market rally for long.
Our domestic economy also proved the pundits wrong. Although historically great predictors like the Leading Economic Index have been declining for 19 consecutive months and the yield curve was severely inverted for a while, the U.S. economy disregarded grim predictions and our Gross Domestic Product grew at a respectable 4.9% rate in the third quarter and is expected to grow by 2.4% annualized in 2023. This expansion was fueled mostly by consumers’ spending of their pandemic excess savings and an incredibly robust labor market. The employment numbers looked great in 2023 with over 2.5 million jobs added through the year and an unemployment rate near record-low levels. Most importantly, real wages finally began to grow again as inflation trended lower from last year’s peak.
The Federal Reserve continued its hawkish posture to battle inflation throughout the year, increasing the federal funds rate by 100 basis points in addition to last year’s 425 basis points increase. The federal funds rate was raised 11 consecutive times since March 2022. This historic series of rate hikes drove the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 5% in October for the first time in 16 years. However, during the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2023, the Fed shifted to a more dovish tone, projecting not only the end of the rate hikes, but also some cuts in 2024. And while the Fed officials downplayed the idea that the cuts are imminent, yields pulled back and the 10-year Treasury ended the year at 3.85%.
As we start 2024, the next few months will be a test for the Federal Reserve and the economy. Inflation has retreated from its peak and is trending downward, but many analysts acknowledged it may float at current levels longer than previously anticipated. The decline in the rate of inflation is a relief for many sectors of the economy, but its impact may last for years as higher interest rates are increasing the cost of borrowing and debt servicing for U.S. corporations, which weakens demand and hampers production. It caused the Fed to decrease its forecast for 2024 GDP growth to 1.4% from previously estimated 1.5%. However, if consumers keep spending, they will serve as a backbone to the economy, along with near-record home and stock prices, and we can expect the “soft-landing” at worst as opposed to the recession which was widely anticipated just one year ago.
The market rally significantly broadened during the last weeks of the year as bond yields fell and the breadth and depth of this holiday rally should bode well for investors in 2024. Moreover, 2024 is an election year, and if history is of any guide, the markets should perform well, as they did in almost all 24 election years since 1928 with an average return of 11.6%. Obviously, the market will not dodge every change in economic and geopolitical trends, and some volatility is widely expected. But we think 2024 will ultimately prove to be a positive year for both stock and bond returns. As always, and especially when the U.S. stock market is concentrated at historically high levels, diversification remains essential to minimize the impact of global conflicts and other crosscurrents in 2024.
Dumont & Blake Investment Advisors, LLC
December 31, 2023